A warmer-than-average winter is predicted for the southern and eastern portions of the United States, with below-average temperatures favored for the northern tier of the U.S. with the expected emergence of a La Niña for the second straight year, according to NOAA’s 2021-2022 Winter Outlook which was released last Thursday.
The Winter Outlook from NOAA covers December through February, which is known as Climatological Winter. For Minnesota, we are looking at an equal chance for above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures as well as precipitation. The main question that everyone is going to want to ask is, “What does that mean?” Which is a great question. It simply means we have an equal chance of seeing below-average, above-average, or average precipitation and temperatures.
Temperatures:
The graphic below shows NOAA’s temperature outlook for Winter 2021-22.
Precipitation:
The graphic below shows NOAA’s precipitation outlook for Winter 2021-22.
Drought:
NOAA has stated drought conditions are forecast to persist and develop in the Southwest and Southern Plains. With widespread severe to exceptional drought continuing to dominate the western half of the continental U.S., Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin. The graphic below shows NOAA’s drought outlook for Winter 2021-22.
“Consistent with typical La Nina conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. while much of the South experiences above-normal temperatures,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The Southwest will certainly remain a region of concern as we anticipate below-normal precipitation where drought conditions continue in most areas.”
NOAA also noted that it does not include any seasonal snowfall projections in its winter outlook because snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
As a reminder, you can always get the latest weather forecast 24/7 on our website by clicking here.
